After a drier-than-usual April and a dry first three weeks of May, UK cereal crops have lost condition fast. According to AHDB's crop development report (data captured up to 25 May 2026), the proportion of winter wheat rated good or excellent has fallen to 64%, down from 75% at the end of April.
What the data shows
AHDB's crop development report records that recent high temperatures of 30°C and above have increased crop stress, with visible leaf rolling in wheat — a classic sign of moisture deficit. Late-May rainfall helped some crops recover, but the report notes that any benefit may be short-lived and that more rain is needed to carry crops through to harvest.
Which crops are holding up
The picture is not uniform. AHDB reports that oilseed rape has generally fared better than winter cereals, and that within the cereals, winter oats are holding up better than wheat and barley. Even where rain arrived, some crops still lack biomass and tiller development.
The market backdrop
Supply is tightening. AHDB expects UK stocks of wheat, barley and oats to end the 2025/26 season lower than its March forecast and below 2024/25 levels. The final crop development report for the 2026 harvest is planned for 26 June 2026.
Where precision pays off in a dry year
When water is the limiting factor, applying inputs uniformly wastes money on parts of a field that cannot respond. This is precisely where precision agriculture earns its keep: soil-moisture monitoring, zone-based management and variable-rate application concentrate effort where the crop can still use it. Our heat stress tool helps you read local conditions, and our guide to precision agriculture in the UK explains the technologies and the 2026 grants that support them.
Sources
Figures reflect AHDB assessments captured up to 25 May 2026 and change through the season — check the source links for the latest position.